In a post earlier this month, I reflected on the dangers of communicating over-certainty about the future. Naturally, if we are selling our services or asserting our credentials, we want to gain an edge over our competitors. One way of doing so is to envisage the great outcomes that will flow from our expertise and efforts. However, we should be wary of overstating our case. People are sceptical of over-confidence and tend to place greater trust in nuanced messages.

The Trusted Advisor

Here at MSB Executive, we have been discussing the topic of trust a great deal in recent weeks. During a three-day workshop we delivered for a global Business Development team, we drew inspiration from The Trusted Advisor (David Maister, Charles Green and Robert Galford), a classic of business literature first published in 2000. Here’s the authors’ take on over-certainty:

“A natural instinct is to project an air of ‘This can be done, no problem, leave it to us, we’ll take care of everything!’ This is often done in the mistaken notion that such phrases create trust by projecting self-confidence. Often, however it can be interpreted as arrogance or secrecy.”

Would You Trust This Man?

Watching television the other evening, I came across a vivid illustration of the consequences of over-promising. In the latest series of Clarkson’s Farm (Amazon Prime), Jeremy Clarkson’s grand project is to buy and renovate a pub. He and his builder, Alan, wander around the property, itemising the work that needs to be done. Alan’s confidence is striking. Locate a water main in a neighbour’s field? “Easy, two-minute job”. Replace the upstairs bar, build new stud walls? “5 grand… that’s easy.” Replace the rotten decking? “Peanuts… let’s just say 10–15 grand…”. Eventually, Alan costs the whole job at “20–25 grand”.

A few days later, Clarkson checks in to see how Alan is getting on. There is good news and bad news. The new non-slip decking is certainly fancy. However, Alan confesses to Jeremy that “it’s gone up double… over double. It’s going to be 40 grand now, from the 20.” The maths is at best fuzzy: the original quote was for the whole job, not just the decking. Even greater than the damage to Clarkson’s budget, though, is the damage to his trust in Alan. A more realistic quote might have lost Alan this job… but has this predicament lost him the opportunity ever to work with Clarkson again?